President-elect Donald Trump has tapped Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the Department of Health and Human Services. Kennedy has vowed to improve the nation’s health by attempting to end what he calls the chronic disease epidemic. NTD breaks down the numbers behind health challenges Americans face, including high obesity rates amid large intake of […]

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s victory has caused a resounding reverberation around the world. As expected, many are asking, “What will Trump’s China policy be? And how will China react? In Latin America, will the flow of drugs and human trafficking slow down?” In the Middle East, Trumps’s victory has elicited a supportive response by some […]

An NTD analysis of over 3,000 U.S. counties shows that President-elect Donald Trump gained more ground among voters in bluer areas, on average. Trump increased his margins in 2024 in counties he carried in the last election by 3.5 percent, while that increase was 6.2 percent in counties President Joe Biden won in the last […]

An NTD analysis of county-level election data for all states excluding California and Alaska reveals that about 90 percent of those 48 states’ counties shifted to the right in the 2024 presidential election compared to 2020, giving President-elect Donald Trump increased margins against Vice President Kamala Harris over President Joe Biden in those areas.  

In the 2024 presidential election in Pennsylvania, President-elect Donald Trump saw more of an increase in support compared to the 2020 election in counties that have a larger Hispanic population by percent, on average, data from the U.S. Census Bureau and vote totals show. Research groups and analysts point to Trump’s handling of the economy […]

President-elect Donald Trump saw increased support, and thus improved his percentage margin, in nearly all 50 states in the 2024 presidential election compared to 2020. As of Nov. 7, Washington state was the only state to see the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris over President Joe Biden, improve their margin against Trump, by 0.3 […]

NTD’s Kevin Hogan explains possible paths to victory for the presidential race tonight. Former President Donald Trump could repeat his 2016 victory in which he won six out of seven key swing states—Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona—for a total of 306 electoral votes, putting him over the needed 270 electoral votes.

The presidential election is only a few days away. Many people will be on the edge of their seats when the vote results are pouring in. What if a candidate has an early lead in a swing state? Does that always signal a strong performance? Not necessarily, for close races, which the swing states will […]

Polls are showing a sizable shift among black voters away from the Democratic Party in the presidential race in Michigan. The average of New York Times and InsiderAdvantage polling shows a 28-point reduction in the advantage Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has over President Joe Biden’s support in 2020. That equates to a potential 158,000 […]

North Carolina has seen a big influx of people over the last four years and that could shift the margins in the state, if not cause it to flip from Republican to Democratic. The 400,000 or so new registered voters are concentrated in urban and suburban counties that shifted Democratic from 2016 to 2020. If […]

Southwest Michigan is in the spotlight, as it shifted to Democrats heavily from 2016 to 2020 largely driven by white college-educated voters moving into the region. Kent County is there, and it was one of three in the state that flipped to Democrats between former President Donald Trump’s first and second run. In his third […]

The battle is on for Atlanta, Georgia, and its surrounding areas, as the campaigns of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump make multiple stops there. The city’s suburbs and exurbs shifted to the Democrat candidate a combined 10 points from the 2016 to the 2020 presidential elections. That equates to well over […]

The presidential race has its epicenter in Pennsylvania. Within the commonwealth are three key areas that could swing the election. Those are the “Latino Belt” from Luzerne County to Berks County, the prosperous Lehigh Valley, which holds the bellwether of Northampton County, and the Philadelphia suburbs called the “Collar Counties.”  

A sensitivity analysis using 538’s “Swing-O-Matic” model shows that a drop in turnout among young Americans could cost Vice President Kamala Harris the election. However, if non-college educated voters, which propelled former President Trump to the White House, don’t turn out as much as in past elections, Harris could repeat Biden’s performance while also picking […]

Working-class voters in Nevada, specifically Latino members, could be pivotal in the 2024 presidential race. Polling averages show Republicans cutting into Democratic margins among Latinos in Nevada, with union workers saying they have seen big shifts to the GOP among their peers from 2016 to the present. If candidate Kamala Harris wins the Blue Wall […]

Arizona’s 11 electoral votes could prove to be pivotal in the close matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The two campaigns are courting what could be a decisive group of voters in the Grand Canyon State—Native Americans, who make up 6 percent of the state’s population. That is a significant […]

The presidential race in Michigan is shaping up to be extremely close with the FiveThirtyEight polling average showing Vice President Kamala Harris with a 0.1 percent lead over former President Donald Trump. With a race this close, any gain or loss among union members or turnout fluctuations among Arab Americans angry over the current administration’s […]

The presidential race in Arizona is again shaping up to be a close match between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump after President Joe Biden flipped it blue for the first time since former President Bill Clinton’s run for reelection in 1996. NTD does a deep dive into voter groups, finding that […]

Media polls under-polled former President Donald Trump in both of the presidential elections in which he ran, 2016 and 2020. Are they doing it again? NTD explores this question with a focus on the “shy Trump voter” effect and how the one poll that got it right—which put Trump in the lead in Michigan and […]

In the presidential election, there are a number of key battleground counties and districts within the battleground state of Wisconsin. NTD’s Kevin Hogan does a deep dive to look at pivot and boomerang counties, metropolitan areas with many swing voters, and the impact of media organizations broadcasting from Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz’s home state […]