U.S. population projections have been lowered from last year due to declining fertility rates and less expected immigration, according to new data released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday.
CBO’s latest demographic outlook shows it has shrunk projections for the U.S. population in 30 years down to 372 million residents.
Last year, it projected 383 million people living in the United States in 30 years.
That’s a difference of 11 million residents.
CBO said that President Joe Biden’s executive order last year had a direct impact on the latest figures.
“The change for 2024 largely reflects the consequences of a June 2024 executive order that temporarily suspended the entry of most noncitizens at the southern border,” the budget office explained in its report.
Biden’s executive action suspended and limited the entry of “any noncitizen” into the United States across the southern border with certain exemptions, such as unaccompanied children. The suspension was set to remain in effect while the number of encounters at the southern border exceeded a given threshold.
Before the executive order was issued, CBO estimated that in the first five months of 2024, an average of roughly 80,000 people every month were released by the Border Patrol after being encountered at the southern border. That number fell to an average of about 20,000 people per month from June through December of last year, CBO estimates.
The office CBO in its report highlighted the role of immigration in sustaining population levels, warning that without it, the population may begin to shrink starting in 2033 in part “because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself.” Fertility rates are not expected to reach the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, instead remaining at 1.60 births per woman over three decades, according to its figures.
As for the rate of growth, the U.S. population is now projected to grow more slowly over the next three decades, the budget office said. In the next 10 years, the yearly growth rate in the United States will be an average of 0.4 percent. According to the CBO, this slows to an average of 0.1 percent between 2036 and 2055.
The office noted that its projections are higher than those made by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census Bureau counts the resident population, while CBO population projections include the so-called “social Security area population,” which is used for estimating payroll taxes and benefits and includes the resident population as well as U.S. citizens and others living abroad who are eligible for those Social Security benefits.
The CBO’s projections also predict higher immigration.
The latest report is part of the budget office’s process of releasing population projections to guide decisions on federal budgets, the economy, and Social Security payroll taxes and benefits.