A sensitivity analysis using 538’s “Swing-O-Matic” model shows that a drop in turnout among young Americans could cost Vice President Kamala Harris the election. However, if non-college educated voters, which propelled former President Trump to the White House, don’t turn out as much as in past elections, Harris could repeat Biden’s performance while also picking up North Carolina, giving her a decisive victory. NTD also explores what the outcome would be if current voter sentiment reflected in national polling turn out to be the case on election night.