New Poll Reveals How Trump and Harris Stand in Swing States

Rachel Acenas
By Rachel Acenas
October 11, 20242024 Elections
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New Poll Reveals How Trump and Harris Stand in Swing States
(Left) Former President Donald Trump speaks at II Toro E La Capra in Las Vegas on Aug. 23, 2024. (Right) Vice President Kamala Harris speaks on the South Lawn of the White House on July 22, 2024. (Ian Maule, Andrew Harnik /Getty Images)

Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are tied across seven swing states with less than a month until Election Day, according to a new Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll released on Friday.

While Trump is leading on top issues, the WSJ opinion survey revealed that Trump and Harris are neck and neck in the key battleground states that would ultimately decide the next president.

The Poll

WSJ surveyed 600 registered voters in each swing state between Sept. 28 and Oct. 8, with a margin of error of four percentage points for each state.

Republican pollster David Lee and Democrat Michael Bocian conducted the survey.

“This thing is a dead heat,” Lee told WSJ.

The Breakdown By States

Trump has an edge over Harris in Nevada, 47 to 42 percent, which marked the biggest gap in the WSJ poll.

However, in the six other swing states of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, the two presidential nominees are only separated by two or less points, well within the margin of error.

Trump has a one-point lead in both Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Meanwhile, Harris holds a slim lead over Trump by one or two points in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia, according to the poll.

The Breakdown by Issues

The economy was the top issue among voters surveyed in the poll.

Participants were asked which presidential nominee would be “best able” to handle the economy. Trump polled more trustworthy to deal with economic issues than Harris in each of the swing states at 50 to 40 percent overall.

The 45th president also had an edge over Harris on the issues of immigration and inflation.

On the issue of abortion, however, Harris has the lead on Trump, 51 to 35 percent. Harris also polled stronger on housing and healthcare, according to the poll.

Other Data

Independent voters surveyed for the poll indicate they are split between Trump and Harris. Thirty-nine percent support Trump, while 40 percent back Harris.

Ninety-three percent of both Democrats and Republicans said they would vote for their respective party’s nominee.

Other Polls Show Similar Results

The results of the WSJ survey reflect other recent polls that showed a tight race between Trump and Harris.

According to The Hill and Emerson College poll released Thursday, the two presidential nominees are nearly tied in the major swing states.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week showed that Trump and Harris are tied across the swing states.

The data from polling among swing state voters could serve as indicators of each candidate’s pathway to victory in the White House, as presidential elections have come down to voters in those battlegrounds that remain competitive.

The more than 90 electoral votes across seven swing states are expected to be pivotal in the 2024 race. Two hundred seventy votes are required to win the presidential election.