According to FiveThirtyEight’s Oct. 22 aggregate of opinion polls, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump are in a tight race—49 percent to 51 percent respectively—for the presidency.
Although presidential race opinion polls have always been close, until recently, Harris has consistently held slight advantages of around 2 percent since she succeeded President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee on July 21.
The Trump campaign appears to be gaining momentum, so much so that an Oct. 18 forecast by FiveThirtyEight’s G. Elliott Morris determined, when analyzing opinion polls from the seven battleground states pundits say will determine Nov. 5’s results, that Harris is actually now trailing by up to 4 percent.
“For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast … Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris,” he wrote. “As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.”
However, those tracking predictive markets—“event futures markets” where people can bet, or purchase “yes” or “no” shares on a proposition that something will or won’t occur—say they saw this trend at least two weeks before it manifested in opinion polls.
New York-based KalshiEx LLC’s elections market, which in an Oct. 2 federal court ruling became the first U.S.-based predictive market allowed to legally offer elections-related events futures to buyers in the United States, shows Trump leading in all seven battleground states since the propositions were posted Oct. 3.
That trend has been documented on predictive markets across the planet, including New Zealand-based PredictIt, which imposes strict limits on how much money people can bet, and Polymarket, a New York-based platform that does not. Neither can legally accept wagers from within the United States.
On Polymarket, the largest of these global sites, Trump shares were trading at 63.8 cents (to win $1) on July 21 when Biden was the Democrats’ candidate, selling at 36.2. By Aug. 15, Harris was selling at 54 cents and Trump at 46. Between Sept. 18 and Oct. 2, the top ticket went back and forth.
On Oct. 3, Trump eclipsed Harris and has gained ground since. On Oct. 22, Trump shares were selling at 63.8 cents and Harris shares at 36.3 cents.
Predictive market analysts, however, told The Epoch Times that there are several factors influencing how these markets are moving and said they are not so sure how “predictive” these markets may be, right now, in forecasting who will win the election.
It’s no surprise this trend surfaced in predictive markets before it was reflected in opinion polls, said data consultant Mick Bransfield of Pittsburgh.
“The prediction markets are able to react more quickly than polls,” he said. “Pollsters have to put together the surveys, garner enough respondents … and have a large enough sample” for the poll to be reflective.
Predictive “markets can respond instantly,” Bransfield said. “We saw that with the Biden–Trump debate in June” when his shares plummeted even before the June 27 debate was over.
Coalition for Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule said there was “no question that the trend has been for Trump pretty much across the board” for weeks, long before the polls charted the shift.
It is “most pronounced on Polymarket,” he said. “Kalshi is not too far behind.”
Who Is Fredi9999?
But Chougule, who hosts the podcast Star Spangled Gamblers, questioned if the markets are moving in a way that truly reflects how close the race is.
“Part of it is, indeed, the polling has shifted to Trump,” he said. “But I think part of the answer here is there are people who are betting large amounts who are very bullish on Trump and, in the case of Polymarket, a disproportionate amount of liquidity … coming in for Trump from very few accounts.”
Chougule said there is one trader on Polymarket, “Fredi,” who may have placed up to $40 million in bets on Trump, driving up shares for the former president to where it was on Oct. 22, between 63 and 64 cents.
“We do not know who he is, but he’s probably French. He’s not an American,” he said, noting analysts are watching how this influences predictive markets in the next two weeks to determine if “there is a bias in these markets.”
The top investor in Polymarket’s U.S. presidential race is listed as Fredi9999, who as of midafternoon Oct. 22 had purchased $12.87 million in “yes” shares to the question, “Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election?”
Carl Allen, author of the book “The Polls Weren’t Wrong,” said it is likely that whoever owns the Fredi9999 account has several accounts. It may not be one person, but a group of people, although he suspects “likely they are the same person … with different accounts.”
There is “nothing illicit about this, there is no rule about having multiple accounts,” he said but, “based on the amounts [being wagered] and the time they are placing their bets,” it is unlikely Freddi9999 is not an American.
Then again, Allen added, “it could be coincidental.”
The bottom line is, no one knows. And no one knows how reflective the market is in terms of forecasting the winner and loser on Nov. 5, the three told The Epoch Times.
But one thing is certain. Billions are being spent on predictive markets across a range of proposition bets, most of it overseas.
Allen said that as of a week ago, about $1 billion had been wagered on Polymarket’s U.S. presidential market. As of midafternoon Oct. 22, that had risen to more than $2.246 billion.
“It was pretty flat from September to October and very recently, in the last few weeks, Trump has shot up in the predictive markets,” he said. “So that means they’ve done a billion [dollars] in volume probably this week.
“The big take-away? There’s more money on Trump than there is with Harris.”
From The Epoch Times