Uncertainty reigns entering the final full week of the 2024 campaign with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a fiercely competitive presidential contest. What happens in the coming days will be pivotal in deciding the winner.
Here’s what we’re watching this week:
Will Wars in Middle East Shift Focus?
U.S. presidential elections are rarely shaped by foreign affairs, but the wars in the Middle East are escalating at the very moment that millions of voters are preparing to cast ballots.
It’s still unclear how Iran would respond to Israel’s airstrikes across Iran on Friday. The answer could determine whether the region spirals further toward all-out war.
Iran’s response could also determine the extent to which the Middle East conflict shapes the U.S. election.
The issue has been especially difficult for Harris to navigate as she simultaneously vows to support Israel and offers empathy for those Palestinians killed by Israel’s response to the Hamas terrorist group’s Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. Harris continues to face intense pressure from her party’s progressive base, which has been extremely critical of Israel.
Trump has been supportive of Israel, and some Arab American leaders—especially in swing-state Michigan—have been supportive of the former president.
Even in a best-case scenario, the next president will inherit one of the most volatile foreign policy challenges in decades.
Harris to Unveil Closing Message Tuesday
It would be an understatement to describe Democrats as anxious as Election Day looms. But there was a deliberate effort by Harris’ senior team over the weekend to project optimism to help temper the fear.
Harris senior adviser Jen O’Malley Dillon predicted victory on MSNBC on Sunday: “We are confident we’re going to win this thing,” she said. “We’re seeing extraordinary enthusiasm. This is going to be a close race, and our campaign is exactly where we want to be.”
Harris will try to alleviate Democratic anxiety further on Tuesday when she delivers her “closing argument” at the Ellipse in Washington.
She’s aiming to drive home the stakes of the Nov. 5 election for undecided voters. And while Harris’ team is betting that there is a significant number of moderates who can still be persuaded, progressive Democrats are worried she’s not focused enough on economic issues in the campaign’s closing days.
Where Will Harris and Trump Go?
The candidates’ evolving travel schedules will tell us much about the battlegrounds that will matter most on Election Day.
Here’s what we know for sure: Harris and Trump are competing in just seven swing states that will ultimately decide the election. They are the three so-called “Blue Wall” states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—in addition to Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
For a political perspective, however, not every one of the seven is created equal.
Harris spent Sunday in Pennsylvania, which may be the election’s biggest prize. Harris is next scheduled to go to Michigan. And after Tuesday’s closing argument in Washington, she plans to visit North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on Wednesday alone. She heads to Nevada and Arizona on Thursday.
Trump’s booked to host at least one rally every day next week: Monday in Georgia, Tuesday in Pennsylvania, Wednesday in Wisconsin, Thursday in Nevada, Friday in Wisconsin again, and Saturday in Virginia.
But as a reminder, these schedules are likely to change based on the campaigns’ intelligence on the ground.
Early Voting Breaks Records
More than 41 million votes have already been cast in the election nationwide. Democrats generally have an advantage in early voting, but so far, at least, Republicans are participating at a much higher rate than they have in the past.
Because of the Republican participation, the early turnout was breaking records last week in swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina.