With one week to go until Election Day, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remain locked in a tight race.
According to online poll tracker FiveThirtyEight, Harris leads Trump 48.1 percent to 46.7 percent as of Oct. 29.
“The forecast is holding steady and the race is well within toss-up range,” wrote FiveThirtyEight polling statistician Nate Silver and elections analyst Eli McKown-Dawson.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters published on Tuesday shows that Harris holds a lead over Trump, 44 percent to 43 percent. Harris has led her Republican rival in every Reuters/Ipsos poll since she entered the 2024 presidential contest in July, but that lead has steadily dwindled since late September.
Meanwhile, both candidates have spent a lot of time campaigning in the critical battleground states. Both campaigns have focused on the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Trump in 2016 flipped all three of those states, catapulting him to a presidential win. But four years later in the 2020 election, Biden won all three states back.
Michigan
Harris is up by 3 points in Michigan, according to the latest Detroit News poll.
But according to Emerson’s poll, which reports roughly 2 percent of respondents remain undecided, Trump leads by 1 point in Michigan.
Both polls fall within the margin of error.
“With one week until Election Day, the race remains a toss-up,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “The survey finds the important voting block of Michigan union household voters breaking for Harris, 55 percent to 41 percent, while non-union household members break for Trump, 52 percent to 46 percent.”
Harris traveled to Macomb County, Michigan, on Monday to meet with union workers.
Meanwhile, Trump on Saturday held a campaign rally in Novi, where he pledged to bring back the auto industry.
“I am proclaiming that by the end of my term, the entire world will be talking about the Michigan miracle and the stunning rebirth of Detroit,” Trump told supporters at the rally.
In 2016, Trump narrowly flipped Michigan, defeating Hillary Clinton by just 0.2 percent. But President Joe Biden carried the state by 2.8 percent in 2020, according to 270towin.
Wisconsin
Meanwhile, Trump and Harris are locked in a dead heat in battleground Wisconsin, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.
Trump leads Harris 48 percent to 47 percent, according to the statewide poll of 500 likely voters. The results are within the survey’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
In 2016, Trump carried Wisconsin by 0.7 percent over Clinton. But four years later, Biden narrowly won the state over Trump.
Over the past week, Harris secured some key endorsements from Republicans in the state. Outgoing Republican state Sen. Robert Cowles, the longest-serving member of the Senate, threw his support behind Harris. Shawn Reilly, mayor of Waukesha and former Republican, also endorsed Harris.
Both Trump and Harris are scheduled to return to Wisconsin this week.
The Trump campaign has welcomed Pro Football Hall of Famer Brett Favre to speak at his campaign rally in Green Bay on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Harris will return to Wisconsin on Friday, the same day Trump is hosting a rally in Milwaukee.
Pennsylvania
Trump stands 1 percentage point ahead of Harris, 48 percent to 47 percent, according to a poll by InsiderAdvantage. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters between Oct. 26 and 27 and has a margin of error of 3.46 percent.
In 2016, Trump won the state by 0.7 percent. But Biden won it back in the 2020 presidential election by 1.2 percent.
Pennsylvania carries the most electoral votes out of all the critical battlegrounds.
There’s a 23 percent chance of Pennsylvania serving as the tipping point state whose electoral votes determine the fate of the 2024 presidential election, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Notably, no Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania since 1948.
While Harris delivers closing remarks at the site of Trump’s Jan. 6 speech in Washington, Trump continues to focus on Pennsylvania with a Tuesday night rally in Allentown, a city with a large Latino population.