South Korea is taking measures to address its ageing society amid an alarmingly low birthrate. The country’s presidential committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy has initiated a planning team, led jointly by the finance and health ministries, aimed at bolstering inter-ministry ties on population policies.
South Korea is faced with a crisis of fertility, with average fertility rates plummeting to a record low of 0.78 in 2022—indicating the average number of children a Korean woman will bear in her lifetime. In order to keep the country’s population stable at just over 50 million people, the replacement level would need to be at 2.1, according to Yonhap News agency.
The committee cautioned that the country is on the cusp of becoming a “super-aged” society by 2025. Senior citizens aged 65 and over will then comprise approximately one-fifth of the country’s total population.
Part of the team’s mission will be to review and implement policies that deal with the low birthrate, and to tackle the associated challenges of an ageing society, as well as changes within the population structure.
“We plan to thoroughly analyze and cope with the social-economic impacts and risks of the changing population structure,” according to a statement by Deputy Finance Minister Bang Ki-sun, who is also the co-head of the committee.
Bang added that further policy details will be announced by the government in due course.
Recent government data shows that the birthrate in South Korea in March of 2023 was more than 8 percent lower than in the same month last year, with only around 21,000 babies born—marking the lowest figure since monthly data gathering began in 1981.
Moreover, this figure has been dropping for 88 consecutive months.
According to government data released separately last week, the long-term situation seems even more daunting. It is estimated that South Koreans aged 65 and over will comprise over 46 percent of the total population by 2070, the Korea Times reported.
Population Decline
In 2020, the U.S. fertility rate was 1.6, the lowest rate in America’s history and a sharp decline from 3.7 in 1960. Europe’s average fertility rate is 1.5. Among other top-10 countries, the Lancet Study reports that Japan’s fertility rate is currently 1.3. China’s fertility rate ranges from 1.3 to 1.5, depending on the source, but some estimates put it as low as 1.15.
Russia’s fertility rate is 1.6. Deaths substantially outnumber births in Russia today, and it is projected to lose up to one-third of its population by 2050. A January Foreign Policy report stated that Russia’s loss of population means it will soon struggle to field enough soldiers for a major military conflict, likely a factor behind its recent threats to use nuclear weapons.
In 1960, the average woman worldwide had 5.2 children. Today that number has fallen to 2.4 and is projected to decline to 2.2 by 2050, barely at replacement level across the globe. By 2100, the Lancet predicts global fertility will be 1.66, taking into account current trends of urbanization, women’s education, workforce participation, and access to birth control.
Going from a birth rate of 5 to a birth rate below 2, writes Stanford University Economist Charles I. Jones, is the difference between “exponential growth in both population and living standards and an empty planet, in which incomes stagnate and the population vanishes.” Jones’ March 2022 report, titled “Consequences of a Declining Population,” describes what he calls the “empty planet result,” featuring not only a decline in human prosperity, but also a depletion of culture, ideas, and innovation. “Economic growth stagnates as the stock of knowledge and living standards settle down to constant values,” Jones writes. “Meanwhile, the population itself falls at a constant rate, gradually emptying the planet of people.”
Kevin Stocklin contributed to this report.