For the first time in more than four years, the Federal Reserve is getting ready to cut interest rates, which could impact everything from U.S. stocks to bonds to savings accounts.
Speaking at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Aug. 23, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the conference of bankers, economists, and monetary policymakers that “the time has come for policy to adjust.”
“Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic,” Powell stated in his widely anticipated prepared remarks. “Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed.”
Heading into the September policy meeting, financial markets will debate the size and frequency of interest rate cuts.
Until then, many might be wondering how the Fed kicking off its easing cycle will affect their finances.
Running of the Wall Street Bulls
In the runup to Powell’s green light to a rate cut, the leading benchmark indexes have performed well and recuperated from the three-day market crash earlier this month.
Year-to-date, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 9 percent, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has rallied nearly 20 percent, and the S&P 500 has surged about 18 percent.
Is there more room for gains, or has Wall Street already baked a Fed rate cut into the cake?
The Fed loosening monetary policy as early as next month will likely benefit the stock market, says Robert Johnson, the chairman and CEO at Economic Index Associates and professor of finance at Heider College of Business.
“The near certainty of Fed loosening and falling interest rates in the coming meetings means that investors should be optimistic concerning their expectations for broad equity market returns,” Johnson told The Epoch Times.
Looking at market data from 1966 to 2023, he says, the S&P 500 generated a 16.4 percent return when the Fed lowered interest rates. Conversely, the index has given investors a 6.2 percent return when the central bank has raised rates.
Additionally, in a lower-rate investment climate, the top-performing sectors have been automobiles, apparel, and retail. The worst-performing sectors have been financials, consumer goods, and utilities.
“History is on investors’ side when it comes to post-rate-cut market returns,” according to Craig Fehr, the principal of investment strategy at Edward Jones, in a note.
David Materazzi, the CEO of automated trading platform Galileo FX, thinks the stock market will surge after the Fed’s rate cut and “will certainly cause stocks to burn brighter in the short term.” At the same time, retail investors must refrain from “being swept away by the illusion of never-ending growth.”
“This environment can create bubbles and lead to overpriced assets,” he told The Epoch Times. “The smart play is to focus on fundamentally strong stocks that can withstand market corrections when the initial euphoria fades. Don’t let the crowd’s excitement blind you to the real risks that lurk beneath the surface.”
Safe-Haven Assets
The Fed’s high-rate environment for two-plus years has been a boon for bond investors and savers—and financially damaging for borrowers.
Money markets—an arena of short-term debt securities and cash equivalents—have attracted immense investment from institutional investors and armchair traders amid yields of around 5 percent.
Billionaire Warren Buffett and his Berkshire Hathaway hold $235 billion in T-bills (maturities ranging from 4 weeks to 52 weeks), representing about 4 percent of the current supply. This is more than the Federal Reserve’s holdings.
Since the Fed’s quantitative tightening campaign was launched in March 2022, money market funds have witnessed exceptional retail interest.
However, now that the central bank is trimming its policy rate from the current 23-year high of 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent, experts warn bond investors might have to transition to long-term duration instruments.
“As investors become convinced of lower future interest rates, they may invest more into the long end of the yield curve—corporate and treasury bonds with 15, 20, or 30 years’ maturity—where interest rate moves have a greater effect on prices,” Michael Ashley Schulman, the partner and CIO of Running Point Capital Advisors, told The Epoch Times.
The benchmark 10-year yield slumped following Powell’s speech, sliding below 3.8 percent.
Cash’s reign as king over the last couple of years could end, too.
The Fed does not dictate banks’ interest rates on savings accounts, but the central bank’s benchmark federal funds rate does influence rates across the marketplace, Johnson explained.
“Savings account rates will fall as the Fed lowers rates. While the Fed doesn’t set savings account interest rates, its actions influence rates throughout the financial markets from automobile loan rates and savings account rates to mortgage rates and credit card rates,” he said.
“As the Fed lowers its target Fed funds rate, rates throughout the financial markets will fall.”
Gold is another safe-haven asset that would benefit from the institution’s looser monetary policy.
The yellow metal has been one of the world’s top-performing assets in 2024, rocketing 23 percent year-to-date to above $2,500. Although many factors have supported gold’s bull run this year, expectations that the Fed would cut rates have been a driving force because of the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, says Alex Ebkarian, the COO and co-founder of precious metals dealer Allegiance Gold.
“In a lower interest rate environment, gold tends to become more attractive compared to bonds, as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases,” Ebkarian told The Epoch Times. “Bonds typically offer weaker returns in such scenarios. Recent adjustments, like Japan’s 0.25 percent rate change, highlight the potential impact of similar moves by the Fed.”
Beyond Interest Rates
While market watchers have concentrated mainly on interest rates, Schulman notes many other factors can influence investor sentiment and the broader financial markets.
“Economic conditions, government regulation, employment, trade and tax policies, and international conflicts also sway attitudes and outlooks,” Schulman told The Epoch Times.
This was observed earlier this month when abysmal economic data triggered recession fears.
During the August 2024 market meltdown, traders panicked about the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) worse-than-expected Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the weaker-than-expected July jobs report that activated the Sahm rule, a key recession indicator. Their concerns were alleviated after three consecutive weeks of decent initial jobless claims reports.
Before the Fed convenes its next two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting on Sept. 17 and 18, the financial markets will digest the August jobs report, more inflation data, and another second-quarter GDP estimate.
Additionally, from the 2024 presidential election to geopolitical tensions, movements on the New York Stock Exchange might be driven by more than just interest rates moving down by 25 or 50 basis points.
In the end, savers might be disappointed in a falling-rate climate, but borrowers and investors will be ebullient in the next policy cycle.
From The Epoch Times